Sunday, February 12, 2006

Islam and Democracy

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There is a clear direct co-relation between Islamic fundamentalism and dictatorial governments. Look at Turkey with a predominantly Islamic population – extremists are unable to penetrate its society. On the other hand, look at closed societies like Syria and Saudi Arabia - insurgency (not in the literal sense) is at its peak. Osama Bin Laden is after all a Saudi citizen. Another relevant example is India with 150 million Muslims (second biggest in the world after Indonesia) – How many times do we hear Indian Muslim terrorists or Indian Al-Qaeda?

[Al-Qaeda’s primary mission is not to wipe out America from the global map but to overthrow the authoritarian governments in the Middle East. (At least this was the primary goal before September 11th). Al-Qaeda wants to do it by killing innocents while Muslim Brotherhood wants to do it through internal strife.]

Then the next question is – Is democracy the solution to Islamic extremism? Democracy is aided by market forces – it acts as a great leveler and wipes away most of the discontentment in any society through freedom of speech and freedom of press.

But how will democracy be achieved in the Middle East? Mark my words – Oil. Oil will cause the downfall of Islamic extremism. Oil is the reason for great imbalance in that part of the society (economic divide) and oil is providing the munitions to the existing governments. Once they run out of Oil (Syria’s reserve will replenish within the next ten years) – they will have to move towards a service dependant economy from an oil dependant economy. Once they open the doors, market forces will drive democracy in that region.

Oil Replenishment -> Service Based Economy -> Open Economy -> Open Society -> Democracy -> Death of Islamic Extremism

And that is not too far…

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